Saturday, April 21, 2007

Hudson on Fire

Tim Hudson 開季以來連續四場精彩的表現,應該足以證明他總算不負 Braves 的期盼回到 Oakland 時代的版本,Hampton 本季養傷、Redman 尚未帶給大家什麼希望、Davies & Cormier 兩個年輕投手還有待時間證明,Hudson 的復活絕對是 Braves 的超級大利多。回頭看看 Baseball Prospectus 的 Marc Normandin 今年三月中旬對 Hudson 的分析裏,分別提到三段過去的觀察描述

Baseball Prospectus 2000:
We told you to watch out for him last year, but nobody could have expected him to be this good this fast. His assortment is dynamite, from the darting, moving sinker to a good forkball, a nice changeup and a slider he mixes in for show. For a strikeout pitcher, he's economical with his pitches, ....

Baseball Prospectus 2001:
Tim Hudson changes speeds aggressively and well, his sinker moves, and his forkball drops on batters like an anvil on Wile E. Coyote. The key is that his release point is almost identical for every pitch, making it incredibly difficult for hitters to figure out what's coming.

Baseball Prospectus 2002:
Hudson was great all year except in May, when he was collectively lit up by the AL East. His K rate hasn't been what it was in 2000–2001, which is a cause for some concern, but he is keeping his GB/FB ratio up above 2. He's a good bet to continue to be among the best pitchers in the game, but there is some mileage there, and lefties do hit him pretty hard—.283/.334/.448 in 2002.

Hudson's Stats:

YR TEAM IP K/9 BB/9 K/BB HR/9 H/9 RA
ERA
1999 Oak 136.1 8.7 4.1 2.1 0.5 8.0 3.70 3.24
2000 Oak 202.1 7.5 3.7 2.1 1.1 7.5 4.45 4.14
2001 Oak 235 6.9 2.7 2.5 0.8 8.3 3.83 3.37
2002 Oak 238.1 5.7 2.3 2.5 0.7 9.0 3.29 2.98
2003 Oak 240 6.1 2.3 2.7 0.6 7.4 3.15 2.70
2004 Oak 188.2 4.9 2.1 2.3 0.4 9.3 3.92 3.53
2005 Atl 192 5.4 3.0 1.8 0.9 9.1 3.70 3.52
2006 Atl 218.1 5.8 3.3 1.8 1.0 9.7 5.32 4.86
2007 Atl 29 5.9 3.4 1.7 0.3 5.0 0.62 0.62
Total -- 1680 6.3 2.9 2.2 0.8 8.5 3.85 3.48

由上述早期的報告裏,再搭配他的生涯成績來看,可以知道 Hudson 從 1999 登上大聯盟在運動家隊的表現,憑著精準的控球以及包括 Sinker、Forkball、Changup、Slider 球路的搭配,雖然三振率逐年下降,但投出保送、被全壘打的頻率也逐年下降,所以他的自責分率一直都很不錯。而在 2004 球季結束後來到勇士隊的頭二年,三振率差不多,但保送及被全壘打的比率明顯變高,去年 4.86ERA 是生涯最差的一年。不少人懷疑 Hudson 是否有傷,2001-2003 這段期間的高投球局數,手臂的疲勞是否在這二年浮出效應。而幾套系統對 Hudson 今年的成績預測雖然比去年好一些、但也沒有多大的進步,大約在 12-14 勝、3.75-4.46ERA、5.57-5.97 K/9、2.87-3.16 BB/9、0.77-0.96 HR/9 和 2005 年的成績差不多。儘管今年春訓期間 Hudson 一再宣稱自己已經調整完畢,但他是否真的能重拾過去在運動家隊的身手;另外三振率的下降,意味著守備重要性的增加,Braves 今年球季內野右半邊的二位新人 (Scott Thorman & Kelly Johnson) 是否能夠頂下來,這些原因都使得季初時仍在大家的心中留著不少問號。

也許從數字的角度來看,今年的樣本數還不夠多,而且仔細看今年的 K/9、BB/9 與去年還挺接近的,RA 大幅下降的原因,除了被 HR & H 的數量很少,是否守備及運氣也佔了不少成分,我不是那麼熟悉數據,但這部份的資料 (ex. BABIP) 我會查一查後再補上來。

However, Tim Hudson 今年到目前為止的表現儼然成為球隊的 Ace,內野的防線也可以讓大家放心,或許 Kelly Johnson 的防守永遠不會成為金手套級,但不得不順帶稱讚一下這位去年季後才開始跟著 Glenn Hubbard 練二壘的年輕人,還有 John Schuerholz 和 Bobby Cox 對球員的耐心與信賴。

Oh, one more thing, Redman pitched better yesterday. I'll put away the rope and wish I'd never have to use it again. :)

Reference: Fangraphs

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