Smoltz will go to Cardinals

Reference: Smoltz to sign with Cardinals

The Cardinals would be responsible for assuming the balance of Smoltz’s $5.5 million contract.

LaRoche is hot!

(Deer Hunter：Chipper and LaRoche)

Adam LaRoche 回歸勇士後的五場比賽：9-for-18 包含一支全壘打、3個BB、4個SO，只有18個打數稱不上什麼統計，但這筆交易目前看來絕對物有所值。

Don't worry about who will be our 1B next year. Julio Franco is always there :D

你選誰？

看到 ptt MLB 在吵 Curt Schilling 和 Kevin Brown 的 HOF 機會，結果 John Smoltz 躺著也中槍，被拿出來比較。我不禁想起2年前 Hardball Times 看過的一篇文章 Whom Would You Choose? 就是比較 Smoltz 與 Schilling 的 HOF 嗆斯。
p.s. 這篇作者 John Brattain 剛過世,THT 正幫他的家人募款。 R.I.P

*這裡簡單翻譯並修正至目前的成績為止，全文請看連結。
==========================
先很快的比較二位球員的基本數據

The Stats
季賽:
    Pitcher    W   L   SV  ERA ERA+  IP    BB   K  WHIP  
    Schilling 216 146  22 3.46 127 3261.0 711 3116 1.137 
    Smoltz    210 147 154 3.26 127 3395.0 992 3011 1.170 
  
季後賽:  
    Pitcher    W  L SV  ERA  IP   BB  K   
    Schilling 11  2  0 2.23 133.1 25 120  
    Smoltz    15  4  4 2.65 207.0 67 194 
 
Hardware 
Awards: Curt Schilling  
    Six-time All Star 
    Two World Series rings 
    1993-NLCS MVP 
    1995-ML-Lou Gehrig Memorial Award 
    2001-NL-Babe Ruth Award 
    2001-ML-Branch Rickey Award 
    2001-ML-Hutch Award 
    2001-ML-Roberto Clemente Award 
    2001-NL-TSN Pitcher of the Year 
    2001-ML-WS MVP-Tie (Randy Johnson) 
    2002-NL-TSN Pitcher of the Year 
  
Awards: John Smoltz 
    1996 Cy Young 
    Seven-time All-Star 
    One World Series ring 
    1992-NLCS MVP 
    1996-NL-TSN Pitcher of the Year 
    2002-NL-Rolaids Relief 
    2005-ML-Roberto Clemente Award 

由以上的基本資料看來是 Schilling 勝出 (作者的原文是 "a slam-dunk for Schilling")，但 Smoltz 的優勢在於他是勇士王朝自始至終重要的一員，加上 Smoltz 獲得過先發和救援投手二大榮譽 (Cy Young & Rolaids Relief) 的肯定，而且 Smoltz 擁有現代季後賽史上的最多勝(15)以及第三多的局數(207, 次於 Glavine 和 Pettitte)。由勇士隊 1991-2005 連續 14 次季後賽的成績 61W-58L (.513) 來看，Smoltz 在這段期間 15W-4L (.789) 的表現，的確值得一生典藏。

同樣的，Schilling 也寫下不少里程碑:

• 20世紀以來投出三季以上300K的四位投手之一。(其他三位為 Nolan Ryan, Randy Johnson and Sandy Koufax)
• 擁有三個勝場 20+ 的球季。(Smoltz 只有一次)
• Runs Saved Against Average(RSAA), 以 329-272 領先 Smoltz。
• 3000局以上的投手中 BB/K 排名第一。
• 20世紀以來 3000 局以上且 BB/9 < 2 的 15 位投手之一，而且是現代棒球以來的 4 位投手之一。

作者 John Brattain 個人偏好球季最後的關鍵時期，所以另外比較了二人由八月一日至季末的成績:

Pitcher ___W _L ERA ___IP ___BB __K
Schilling 65 48 3.44 1084.2 240 1034
Smoltz ___67 43 3.23 1094.1 318 966
* 這裡統計至2006球季，更新後另修正

這裡看出 Smoltz 的勝率、自責分率、BB/9、K/9 都比球季時的平均好一些。Brattain 簡單的結論是，John Smoltz 不只是季後賽之神，而且在14個季賽的後段關鍵期表現的更突出一些。而 Schilling 的 ERA 則幾乎和平時一樣，他的勝率要比生涯平均低，BB/9 差不多，而 H/9 和 K/9 在八月一日後比較差。

作者 John Brattain 在寫這篇文章之前，HOF 在這二者間會選擇 Curt Schilling，完成文章之後則會投給 John Smoltz。

你呢？

Reference: The Hardball Times, Whom Would You Choose

Chipper Jones, Braves finalized extension

好久沒注意MLB，尤其最喜愛的 John Smoltz 離隊後我連MLB.TV也不打算訂了，不過4/5對上去年的冠軍費城人就有電視轉播可以看，希望以後ESPN能多關照一下。

Chipper signed extension from 2010 to 2012, with 2013 vest option.
$3M signing bonus
2010-2012: $13M/yr, plus incentives
** $750K/season for 135 games played,another $750K for 140 games
2013: $9M vesting option, with escalator clauses.
** The option vests with 123 games played in 2012, or 127 games averaged in 2011-2012, and if it doesn’t vest the Braves could exercise a $7M team option. Escalators could push the vesting option as high as $13 mill.
That could push the total to a max of $61 million over four years.

今年即將滿37歲的Chipper得到勇士隊的尊敬，也許一年平均大約$14M的薪資對一個去年的打擊王並不算多，但一個年紀大、有傷病史、近五年平均每季出賽只有124場的三壘手，這應該是勇士最大的誠意了。我想Frank Wren大概是因為Smoltz的例子得到教訓，不敢再冒險得罪球迷吧。

記得當時不少人挺Frank Wren，覺得Smoltz又老又傷不值得花那麼多錢簽(他馬的$2M)；同樣的邏輯，Chipper這份合約的風險也不小，怪了，這次怎麼沒有人嫌Frank Wren出手太大方呢？

BTW, 2010的薪資 Lowe($15/M) + Chipper($14M) + Vazquez($11.5M) + Kawakami($6.67M) 約為$47M，這大概就佔了Braves近一半的薪資，2011年的狀況也差不多。掰了外野大砲、掰了Huddy、掰了Soriano and ... Francoeur with ego, I guess.

Thank God, 至少可以看到 Chipper 穿著斧頭退休了。

Fuck Braves Official all !!

"ESPN and MLB.com reported that Smoltz, a free agent, will get a contract worth $5.5 million guaranteed from the Red Sox, with additional incentives worth up to $5 million." Thursday, January 08, 2009

I am a loyal Braves fan after the game 7, 1991 world series and John Smoltz became my sports idol since then. The very first thing came out of this blog is to tribute this greatest pitcher. Personally, I can sustain Glavine ,Maddux or even Chipper aren't in the Braves. But for Smoltzy, it's totally unacceptable.

Now, the game is over..... sigh.

****************************************

John Smoltz
1988-2008 Atlanta Braves
210W 147L 154SV 3395IP 3011SO 3.26ERA
postseason: 15W 4L 4SV 207IP 194SO 2.65ERA
****************************************

Despicable,disgusting and unprofessional

Rafael Furcal 的放鳥事件，發展到球隊高層與球員經紀公司對幹的局面。簡單列一下事件起末：

星期一 (Dec-15)：
1) 晚上 Frank Wren 和 Furcal 的經紀人 Paul Kinzer(Wasserman Media, agent group headed by Arn Tellem) 談好合約條款，等待 Furcal 的同意。
2) 晚上8點至10點間，Wren 和 Kinzer 就包括合約金額、年限和Vest Option(附條件選擇權)等合約細節談了三、四次。
3) 半夜時 Wren 和 Kinzer 又談了一次，Kinzer 告訴 Wren 還沒有接到 Furcal 的回覆，但表示 Furcal 很高興，所有狀況都不錯 ("we're good with everything.")。

星期二 (Dec-16)：
1) 早上 Wren 起床後收到 Kinzer 的語音留言，請他準備 "term sheet" (暫且稱為"草約"吧)。
2) Wren 進辦公室後，準備好草約並簽名。
3) 沒過多久， Kinzer 踩煞車，說他答應和道奇再談談。

星期三 (Dec-17)：
1) 上午開始傳出 Furcal 將在勇士與道奇二者間選擇加盟的球隊。
2) 中午在紐約大都會主場 Shea Stadium K-Rod 加盟記者會後，Paul Kinzer："Right now things have swung back to the Dodgers..."
3) 晚上7點左右，Furcal 確定選擇道奇。
4) Frank Wren 出來痛批："We don't do business this way. You don't expect people you have to deal with to do business this way." Wren said there’s nothing to be done legally, because he had no signature on a deal.

星期四 (Dec-18)：
1) 勇士隊總裁 John Schuerholz 親上火線力挺 Frank Wren，痛幹經紀公司的行為，並宣稱勇士從此不再與 Arn Tellem 代表的球員交易。
"It was disgusting and unprofessional. We're a proud organization, and we won't allow ourselves to be treated that way. I advised Arn Tellem that whatever players he represents, just scratch us off the list. Take the name of the Atlanta Braves off their speed dial. They can deal with the other 29 clubs, and we'll deal with the other hundred agents.”
2) Wasserman Media Group 的 Arn Tellem 針對這次事件發表聲明：(原文連結:按這裡)
一、Rafael Furcal 和亞特蘭大勇士隊沒有簽訂任何的合約。
二、事實上，勇士非常清楚 Furcal 還未下決定，只是希望留待第二天再決定。
三、再者，依據棒球規定，所有的經紀人與球隊都清楚，除非以下二點(i)已簽字的球員合約或(ii)球員工會及聯盟辦公室確認這筆交易，否則交易並未完成；而以上二種情況都未發生。
四、Furcal 最終會決定接受道奇的提議，最大的因素是他仍希望擔任游擊手，而非勇士要求的二壘手。
五、失去類似 Furcal 這樣的明星球員當然非常失望，我們了解勇士球團隊對談判結果的挫折，但這並不能改變我們在這次事件過程堅持誠信並遵守大聯盟規定的事實。
六、我們最大的義務是提供客戶最大的利益，我們也將繼續秉持誠信原則、並遵守大聯盟的規則下，為客戶爭取最大的利益。
七、只要能為我們的客戶服務，我們未來將繼續為勇士提供機會，而在遵守大聯盟的規定下，勇士也必須參與。我們希望一時的情緒消退後，勇士球團的表現不但能符合CBA(團體協約)及國家勞動關係法的規定，並且符合自身最大的利益。簡而言之，我們不希望這次意外影響他們的判斷。

幹！越看越氣，標準的律師用語，不禁想起以前和幾家老美或外商公司談採購合約的經驗，TMD 就是這種調調。如果人跟人之間的信任只剩一張紙，那也太悲哀了。


Paul Kinzer and Frank Wren

John Schuerholz and Arn Tellem

Here comes .. Jake Peavy !!..... oh, wait a moment

MLBTRADERUMORS: Braves Near Peavy Deal?
According to Scott Miller of CBSSports.com, the Padres are expected to request Jake Peavy waive his no-trade clause to go to the Braves. The deal being discussed: Yunel Escobar, Gorkys Hernandez(1A), one of two starting pitchers --Charlie Morton or Jo-Jo Reyes--, and either reliever Blaine Boyer or one of two minor league southpaws(one of which is believed to be Jeff Locke). Miller says the Padres are leaning toward Morton and Boyer.

The Braves want an answer by Friday, so they can figure out their free agent needs. Peavy is said to prefer the Cubs, but we'll see what happens if the Padres approach him to waive the no-trade for Atlanta. It hasn't happened yet.

依據 Scott Miller 的說法，教士隊要求勇士的 Escobar、Hernandez 以及一位先發(Jojo or Morton)和一位牛棚(Boyer or a minor league lefty)來交換 Peavy，據說投手的部份教士傾向要 Charlie Morton 和 Blaine Boyer。

那還考慮什麼？Make it happen, Mr. Frank Wren. Please.........

Peavy 是當今大聯盟數一數二的王牌先發，我想到現今和他同等級有實績又有經驗的大投手沒有幾個，Johan Santana、CC Sabathia、Brandon Webb，也許再包括 Roy Halladay、Carlos Zambrano or Cliff Lee、Tim Lincecum，勇士用這樣的代價就可以得到的話，除非 Peavy 有傷，我想不出不換的理由。

這筆交易如果成真，對 Braves 來說最大的損失就是 Yunel Escobar，但想拿到這樣等級的投手而且價格又合理，這是必須付出的代價。A pitcher of this caliber is *that* big of deal.

勇士隊不能再期待垂垂老矣的 John Smoltz 繼續拼，也還要觀察 Jair Jurrjens 明年球季能否持續今年優異的成績，而 Tim Hudson 開完 Tommy John 手術後恢復的狀況，Tommy Hanson 升上大聯盟後的未知表現...；事實上，未來幾年勇士的先發輪值不但沒有真正的 one two punch，連要排出五名輪值先發都有點困難。如果 Peavy 能來，不禁聯想到1993年來到 Braves 的 Greg Maddux，同樣拿過賽揚獎、差不多的年紀，只要他能健康的出賽，即使勇士的戰績還是像這幾年一樣的爛，至少我會想看 Jake Peavy 的每一場比賽。
Hey, we still keep Tommy Hanson、Jordan Shafer、Tyler Flowers and Jason Heyward. Not bad eh?!

Junichi Tazawa?

MLB 的 Winter meeting 開始了，Braves 的首要目標當然是二位先發投手和一位外野手，除了參與 Jake Peavy 的爭奪戰，根據 AJC DOB 的報導，Braves 也是第一支提出offer 給日本22歲的右投手Junichi Tazawa(田沢純一)的球隊，同時還有 Boston、Seattle、Chicago Cubs 也有興趣。根據報導，Braves提出這份 multi-year offer 的一紙MLB合約內容包括列入40人名單及參加大聯盟春訓。

Japan's Junichi Tazawa pitches to Taiwan during the 37th Baseball World Cup game in Taichung November 9, 2007. REUTERS/Pichi Chuang (TAIWAN)

據來自MLB某隊的消息，Junichi Tazawa similar to the Braves' Tim Hudson “with a better curveball.” Tazawa has a mid-90 mph fastball, a split-finger pitch and a big curveball.

這個沒打過NPB的球員到底有何特殊之處？ similar to Tim Hudson？ no clue at all ...

R.I.P Skip Caray

33年的勇士之聲Skip Caray過世了，享年68歲。Braves還有什麼更倒霉不幸的事？！

懷念一下他的轉播：
The decisive moment of game 7,1992 NLCS. Francisco Cabrera drove in Sid Bream.


The final out in the 1995 World Series.


Reference:
Longtime Braves broadcaster Skip Caray dies at 68
Braves mourn passing of longtime voice Skip Caray

Braves 731 Countdown

MLBTRADERUMORS
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/atlanta_braves/index.html
2008/7/29
1:01pm: ESPN's Jayson Stark says the Dodgers and Yankees have also flirted with the idea of acquiring Teixeira. The Braves want a big-league ready bat, preferably a first baseman, in any trade.

12:23pm: Ken Rosenthal says the Angels and D'Backs are competing for Teixeira. The Halos would like to expand the deal to include a lefty reliever like Will Ohman or Mike Gonzalez. Joe Saunders and Ervin Santana are off-limits, but Casey Kotchman and Juan Rivera can be had. Not sure why Rivera would appeal to the Braves, since he's a free agent after the season.

8:29am: When we last left off, various sources conflicted on whether the D'Backs are the frontrunner to acquire Mark Teixeira. Let's kick off a new thread for the likely slew of new Tex rumors today.

According to Mike DiGiovanna of the L.A. Times, the Angels are once again exploring a trade for Teixeira. They are warming to the idea of adding a rental player to their first-place club. The price for Teixeira is said to be a first baseman, starter, and power-hitting outfielder. DiGiovanna also wonders if a deal could be expanded to include Will Ohman, much like last year when the Rangers added Ron Mahay.


----- 下面是廢話 -----
well, Braves are out this year. 今年的勇士霉星高照，先發投手的John Smoltz四月底進DL、六月復出投了一局就掛整季，Tom Glavine投了12場59.3局六月十一號進了DL還沒放出來，Mike Hampton最近才主投三年來的第一場球，Tim Hudson正準備去見Dr. Andrews(You know what it means..)。中繼投手的Peter Moylan季初開Tommy John整季報銷，Rafael Soriano從六月六號躺DL到七月二十一號才歸隊，Mike Gonzalez去年開完Tommy John到六月才回到場上。最好的打者 Chipper、McCann 也進了DL。這下不是擔心能不能順利交易Teixeira，而是整個球隊的狀況到了一個臨界點。

Tex的交易個人沒有什麼想法，事實上我希望能留他下來。畢竟Chipper的年紀大了，Frency令人失望，McCann的表現沒話說，可是球隊不太可能長期依賴一個蹲捕累的半死、還要來扛第三、四棒的，少了Tex這種 proven power hitter是非常傷的。如果可以交易到類似紅襪Kevin Youkilis的最好，或者希望至少能弄到前幾名的新秀，不然若因為沒錢留Teixeria、將來也很難有$$簽這種等級的自由球員，未來幾年實在看不出Braves有什麼機會。

目前幾個關於Tex的交易謠言都不太好，而留到年底等別的球隊簽，勇士最好的狀況是拿個1st round和sandwitch二個選秀權，若Tex被排名後一點(選秀權前15名)球隊簽走的話，那Braves就只能拿到sandwich和2nd round的選秀權了。我想與其賭明年的選秀還不如現在能換到別隊big-league ready's prospects來的保險。anyway, 交易不是那麼的一廂情願，只能等著看了。

Smoltz和Glavine兩位老骨頭明年能不能回來？Hudson會不會開Tommy John？ .... 我的老天！

Glavine's back

I had expressed my anger about Glavine in this article,"Tom Glavine is a Traitor?". But now, Glavine turned down $13M offer from Mets and gave Atlanta Braves a hometown discount with $8M, one-year deal.

I have to be happy with it. Welcome home, Tommy.

Braves Designate Bob Wickman for Assignment

Bobby made this decision, "I just want to try something else, try something new," Cox said.

Andruw said the truth behind this move,
"If it's not a save situation, he was not happy about it," Andruw Jones said. "It's not fair to the team. It's not fair for the manager. The way he was going about this business, separate from everybody.

"We're a team. Everybody has their own attitude. Everybody's got their own feeling about each other. Everybody's got their own way of going about their business. But when we put a uniform on and we're all together, we're all as one. And we need guys who want to go out there and perform."

Surprised, no idea about this move yet. Perhaps I'd call this move a kick-ass. Bobby clearly made a sign, play 100% or fuxk yourself elsewhere.

Reference: AJC Braves cut ties with Wickman

Teixeira Tribute Song

Teixeira, who has seven homers and 19 RBIs in 17 games since being traded to the Braves. Two Auburn students from Alabama and longtime Braves fans made a song to Mark Teixeira. TBS' Chip Caray and Joe Simpson played this song during Tex's second at-bat of today's game.


Reference: Teixeira song is a hit

Bobby sets record with 132nd career ejection

Bobby Cox, who had managed to go 43 consecutive games without an ejection, has been tossed by 79 different umpires.

All-Time Ejection Leaders

Bobby Cox	132
John McGraw	131
Leo Durocher	124
Earl Weaver	97
Frankie Frisch	86

Cox said that this is not a record to be proud of. But I like his attitude in the field for trying to protect his players.

最近的比賽不管贏或輸、表現好或壞，真他馬的越來越好看了，今天的比賽又殺死一堆細胞 (Recap)。I almost gave up this game after Wickman's poor performance, but wait ..... Chipper hits a game winning double after 10 minutes.

依慣例附上今天的 Game Graph (referred to FanGraphs)。

Braves WPA leader: Yunel Escobar .376 ( runner-up: Matt Diaz .134)
Goat: Bob Wickman -.189 (runner-up Jeff Francoeur -.132)
Most decisive play: I'll give credit to Yunel Escobar for his nice catch in the ninth inning, he saves at least a run.
Most decisive pitch: Every pitch Bob Wickman made in the ninth inning!!
Total contribution by the hitters: .537
Total contribution by the pitchers: -.037

John Smoltz 七月 4 GS、27 IP、2.33 ERA，被 Soriano BS 一場，只拿到 1W-1L；八月繼續他的壞運氣 3 GS、19 IP、4.74 ERA，被 Mahay & Wickamn 各 BS 一場，拿到 0W-1L。七場有三場被牛棚搞砸 .....
BTW, perhaps Andruw should be benched or put on DL for a while, he needs more rest or adjustment for Braves sake.

推薦閱讀： 我愛賽伯計量學：霸氣, 這玩意真的存在?
我看過國外報導最接近「霸氣」的單字是 "intimidating"，這是個形容詞。如果討論棒球捨棄那麼多的技術層面不去探討，卻使用這種沒有邏輯的形容詞來比較球員，實在是很可笑的一件事。

for FUN: Barry Bonds Signs

New home run king (*)

San Francisco Giants Barry Bonds hits his 756th career home run in the fifth inning of their baseball game against the Washington Nationals in San Francisco, Tuesday, August 7, 2007.

Bud Selig 未親自出席，打了通電話給 Bonds，隨後發布一份聲明：
"While the issues which have swirled around this record will continue to work themselves toward resolution, today is a day for congratulations on a truly remarkable achievement," Selig said in a statement, released after he spoke to Bonds by telephone.

Hank Aaron 也如同之前說的沒興趣參加，但 Hammer 還是有份事先錄好的恭賀：
"It is a great accomplishment which required skill, longevity and determination," Aaron said in his message. "Throughout the past century, the home run has held a special place in baseball and I have been privileged to hold this record for 33 of those years. I move over now and offer my best wishes to Barry and his family on this historic achievement.

"My hope today, as it was on that April evening in 1974, is that the achievement of this record will inspire others to chase their own dreams," he said.

自己的紀錄被打破時 Aaron 在做什麼？

A woman who answered the phone at Aaron's home in Georgia shortly after Bonds' homer said that Aaron was asleep.

Hank Aaron is damn cool!

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Glavine Wins Number 300

Leo Mazzone's 1995 staff of (from left) Glavine, Steve Avery, Kent Mercker, Greg Maddux and John Smoltz won the World Series.

Glavine got his 300th win today, bitter sweet.

I had expressed my upset about his leaving. I respect his achievement, but Tommy had been retired from my heart after 2002.

8/2 Astros (12) @ Braves (11)

Rafael Soriano 第八局被 Mike Lamb 轟了一支追平滿貫砲，歷史馬上回溯到 2005 年的第一輪季後賽，十八局的痛苦記憶又回來了，雖然最後以輸球收場，但仍然是一場非常精采的比賽 (Box Score)。Jo-Jo Reyes 在賽後被派到 3A Richmond，取代五號先發的則是 Lance Cormier。如果 Braves 能擠進季後賽，Smoltz and Hudson 掛頭牌、Chucky or Carlyle 頂三號，先發投手只要保持健康，沒什麼大問題；但目前排名還落後的情況下 everygame count，必須爭取每一場獲勝的可能，希望最後不是因為五號先發的崩盤，成為季末飲恨的決定性因素。

近來習慣把延長賽的 Game Graph 自 FanGraphs 轉錄過來，原因除了比較精彩刺激外，所謂的 high leverage 情況也會特別多，看著如同心電圖的 Winning Probability，希望自己能看到 MLB.TV 或 Recap 外更清楚的比賽狀況。

今天的 Game Graph (referred to FanGraphs)


Braves WPA leader: Matt Diaz .530 (Mark Teixeira .183)
Goat: Chipper Jones -.397 (Rafael Soriano -.352, Jo-Jo Reyes -.341, Kelly Johnson -.250)
Most decisive play: Chipper grounded into double play in the 14th inning.
Most decisive pitch: After Harris made an error, Soriano allowed Mike Lamb to hit a game tying grand slam in the 8th inning.
Total contribution by the hitters: .106
Total contribution by the pitchers: -.606

Rafael Soriano 目前 1.69 HR/9 是 MLB 六年以來最差的一季，其實對手的打擊率並不高 (.179 vs. left, .212 vs. right)，7.88 K/9 和 2.06 BB/9 也算不錯，本季至今 48 局的投球應該也還說不上過度使用，從 MLB.TV 看起來球速還有、但沒什麼 movement，而今天被轟了滿貫砲後又連續解決後三名打者 (2 SO)，Damn, it's hard to observe a reliever.

BTW, from the WPA's point of view, it's Chipper's worst game this season.

Teixeira trading "rumor"

Update:
Matt Harrison has been removed from the Braves' Mark Teixeira proposal after being shut down with shoulder tendinits.
Says FOXSports.com's Ken Rosenthal, the Braves are still offering Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Elvis Andrus for Teixeira, and they gave the Rangers a list of young pitchers to consider as Harrison's replacement. Jo-Jo Reyes isn't on said list, though he might yet be in play if Eric Gagne or C.J. Wilson is included along with Teixeira.
Rotoworld FOXSports

這陣子最熱門的交易傳聞就是 Braves 可能以 Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Elvis Andrus 和 Matt Harrison 與 Rangers 交易 Mark Teixeira，先看看 Teixeira 的成績，

Yr	Ag	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	BB/K	HR	OPS+
2003	23	0.259	0.331	0.480	0.811	0.37	26	103
2004	24	0.281	0.370	0.560	0.929	0.58	38	128
2005	25	0.301	0.379	0.575	0.954	0.58	43	146
2006	26	0.282	0.371	0.514	0.886	0.70	33	123
2007	27	0.297	0.397	0.524	0.921	0.68	13	139

沒什麼好懷疑的，非常棒的一位球員，而且正是 Braves 野手裡最弱的 1B，交易過來絕對比目前的 Who-Lee-Old+Thorman 大幅提升。但是用掉 Salty 和二位 high-rank 新秀值得嗎？Teixeira 的高薪資 Braves 明年季後能留得下來嗎？Braves 不是該補強投手嗎？

一開始我懷疑這個交易的合理性，但現在覺得這個交易並不算差。

1) Saltalamacchia 的價值，很大的原因在於他是個打擊很好的捕手，而 Braves 已經有個今年才簽了六年約的 Brian McCann，被擋住的 Salty 只能移往1B。但就目前為止，不管什麼原因，Bobby Cox 並沒有讓 Salty 常常站在1B，還撿了49歲的老胡回來。另外 Salty 在1B有限的場次下表現得也並不理想，下列今年的成績。

Player	Pos	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG
Salty	C	79	0.354	0.393	0.468
Salty	1B	44	0.182	0.245	0.364
Thorman		252	0.214	0.257	0.385
Franco		30	0.200	0.294	0.300

Salty 擔任一壘手時的三圍真的不行，雖然樣本數太少，但至少以目前僅有的數據呈現的是如此。或許 Salty 再練一段時間能站好一壘，有 Kelly Johnson 成功轉型的前例，我相信未來 Salty 「可能」成為比 Teixeira 還好的球員，但目前也僅是「可能」而已。就如前面所提的，Salty 最大的價值是個很會打擊的捕手，而我們已經有一個了。

2) Elvis Andrus 這幾年一直是勇士農場裡排名很高的新秀，年輕是他最大的本錢，但未來也因此充滿不確定性，future Derek Jeter or Edgar Renteria ? Who knows. 至少要再等個三、四年才曉得真正的答案。不過 Braves 在 SS 這個位置包括 Brent Lillibridge、Chase Fontaine 和已經升上來的 Yunel Escobar 都還不錯，若 Edgar Renteria 明年的表現還是這麼亮眼，如果有錢的話，那麼他 2009 年的 $11M club option 也可以撿起來，或試試重簽合約的可能。
Matt Harrison 是目前農場裡評價最好的 SP，我不知道他有多好，但這樣的評價一定有他值得期待的道理，another Jo-Jo Reyes、Anthony Lerew、Kyle Davies、Chuck James or Adam Wainwright ? 一樣要等個二年才會知道真正的答案。

3) 今年季中的交易市場沒什麼好投手丟出來，就算有，以目前各隊都極缺投手的狀況，炒出來的價碼可能不是 Braves 能負擔的。Salty for Snell 可能是之前最好的交易傳聞，但事實上現在就是沒有好投手丟出來。而球季末的交易市場呢？我們等著看一些 2nd-tier 的投手能被炒到什麼樣的驚人價碼。

4) Teixeira 明年仲裁年一過就成為自由球員，Braves 留下他的可能性有多高？我稍微查了一下資料，2009 年 Hampton 的 $6M buyout 大概會留給 Rockies 來付，Andruw 可能也不在了，最大的幾個合約包括：Chipper $8M(vest option)、Hudson $13M、Smoltz $12M、McCann $3.5M 加起來差不多$36M，再來撿不撿 Renteria 的 $11M option 和其他未確定的球員 Francoeur、Chucky、Soriano、Gonzalez 薪資粗估一下，Braves 願意的話還是有機會留下 Teixeira 的，而即使留不住他，Braves 仍能在季中交易他，或最差在季末拿到二個選秀權。

John Schuerholz 一向對交易農場裡的高階新秀毫不手軟，該出手時絕不猶豫，這是他與其他球隊 GM 最大的不同，尤其在受 Money Ball 思維影響的這個年代，Schuerholz 在沒什麼大錢的情況下還能以這樣的手法獲得大部分不錯的交易結果，所以即使這次一口氣丟出三個最好的新秀，我只能選擇相信他的判斷，或者說，至少 Braves 並沒有放棄今年的機會，如果還能弄來個不錯的牛棚那就更好了。JS 是騙子、勇士賣假貨？只能怪其他球隊太笨了。

BTW, 這筆交易讓我想起 1993 年的 Fred McGriff，那年到了七月二十二日 Braves 還落後 Giants 10 場，但最後以一場勝差拿下國聯西區冠軍，Fred McGriff 扮演了重要的角色。如果 Teixeira 的到來也有這樣的效果，現實的我們大概很快就會忘了當時這筆交易的代價吧。Just wait and see.

7/24 Braves(7) @ Bonds(5)

WTF !! It reminds me of this game.

Bob Wickman 今年五次BS，其中毀掉 Tim Hudson 就佔了三場。今天這場比賽幾乎就是 4/25 在佛羅里達(BoxScore)那場比賽的翻版。同樣是 Hudson 投了八局完封、同樣是 Huddy 在九局下半繼續主投、同樣是由 Wickman 上來救援、同樣被對手攻下四分。不同的是上次帶著三分領先進入最後半局、被逆轉輸掉比賽，而今天多帶了一分，只被舊金山邦茲隊追平，最後拖到 13 局拿到難看的勝利。
** 6/14 在明尼蘇達比賽的狀況是 Huddy(7.1 IP) 和 Soriano(0.2 IP) 完封八局，帶著二分的領先在九局下被 Wickman 毀掉(Box Score)。

來看看今天比賽的 WPA (referred to Fangraphs)。


Braves WPA leader: Tim Hudson .335 (*Also honored, Edgar Renteria .227 and Peter Moylan .286)
Goat: Bob Wickman -.456
Most decisive play: Renteria's 2-out, 2-RBI double in the 13th inning.
Most decisive pitch: Wickman allowed Bengie Molina to hit a 2-out, game tying single in the 9th inning.
Total contribution by the hitters: .147
Total contribution by the pitchers: .353

Dear Bobby, please bench "Who--Lee--Old" and start Salty (or even Thorman) at 1B....

Weird stats: Bob Wickman 的客場成績慘不忍睹，遠遠不如主場。
至今 22 次的客場出賽是 8.20 ERA、5 BS/14 SVO；而在主場的 ERA 是 0。
客場出賽的 18-2/3 局，被打 30 支安打、17 自責分；而在主場的 16-2/3 局，被打 9 支安打、0 自責分。