Backpack loaded, see ya next month!

旅行的因子又發酵了，明天即將出遠門，再享受一次當個遊俠的樂趣。
預訂行程：台北->香港->深圳->昆明->大理->麗江->中甸->德欽->稻城->亞丁->康定->成都->深圳->香港->台北
大概就是「昆大麗」加上「大香格里拉」。

原本走滇藏公路入西藏的計劃因朋友無法成行而作罷，但既然旅行病毒發作了，就乾脆臨時改個陌生一點的行程。手邊有的只是幾張地圖、幾頁列印的資料，就發揮背包客的精神，但求我助人人、不求人人助我，隨遇而安、走那算那，利用最少的資源創造最大的樂趣。

一個背包、二段機票、三點糢糊、許多未知。無所謂，就這麼走吧。

大香格里拉路線圖


茶馬古道麗江香格里拉地圖


虎跳峽徒步手繪地圖


西當雨崩徒步路線圖


亞丁導遊地圖

Clutch Situation 關鍵時刻 ?!

WPA
今年球季至目前為止，Braves 在二出局後的得分是領先大聯盟的 92 分，而六局結束落後的情況下戰績是 7W-10L，原因 Bobby Cox 說不出來，球員說是士氣，沒有人知道為什麼，但 Braves 就是有辦法在需要的時候、或者說在關鍵時刻得到分數。

原本想利用這篇統計一下 Braves 球員今年球季到目前為止的表現，AVG/OBP/SLG 已經不能滿足需要，也不能解釋球隊頻頻逆轉的表現，我想用 WPA、Clutchiness 來看看各個球員的貢獻度，在查完 WPA 後，不小心踩進 Clutch 的洞，結果這篇的後段就變成「關鍵時刻」的東西了 @_@。

先簡單說明一下 WPA，
WPA: Win Probability Added, also called "Win Expectancy","WRAP", "Player's Win Value".... etc.
這是評估一個球員對球隊勝敗影響的一個數據，最早的概念來自 Bill James 發明的 Win Shares，這和以往評估一個球員能力的傳統數據(AVG、OBP、SLG...)最大的不同，是提供一位球員對比賽最重要的結果「WIN」的貢獻度。

這裡先看看 Braves 幾位球員到 May-11 為止 35 場比賽統計的 WPA：

Batter	WPA	AVG	OBP	SLG	G	AB
Kelly Johnson	1.58	0.286	0.419	0.508	34	126
Edgar Renteria	1.16	0.333	0.392	0.496	32	135
Chipper Jones	0.68	0.303	0.410	0.636	35	132
Andruw Jones	0.55	0.236	0.373	0.463	35	123
Jeff Francoeur	0.44	0.301	0.360	0.507	35	136
Scott Thorman	0.38	0.247	0.293	0.442	29	77
Brian McCann	0.35	0.295	0.359	0.448	30	105
Willie Harris	0.33	0.400	0.516	0.440	11	25
Saltalamacchia	0.18	0.222	0.364	0.222	3	9

Starter	WPA	ERA	WHIP	GS	IP	W	L	SV	BS
Hudson	1.59	1.83	0.97	8	59.0	4	1	0	0
Smoltz	0.23	3.25	1.35	8	52.2	5	1	0	0
Chucky	0.07	4.84	1.61	7	35.1	3	3	0	0
Lerew	0.06	3.00	0.67	1	6.0	0	0	0	0
Davies	-0.38	5.35	1.60	6	33.2	1	1	0	0
Redman	-1.21	10.62	2.11	5	20.1	0	4	0	0
Reliever	WPA	ERA	WHIP	G	IP	W	L	SV	BS
Soriano	1.79	2.95	0.71	19	18.1	1	0	5	0
Yates	0.81	4.32	1.14	19	16.2	1	0	0	0
Moylan	0.80	2.51	1.19	9	14.1	1	0	1	0
Gonzalez	0.74	1.10	1.35	17	16.1	2	0	2	0
Paronto	0.16	3.60	1.60	12	10.0	2	0	1	0
Wickman	-0.43	3.97	1.85	13	11.1	1	1	6	2
Villarreal	-0.52	4.20	1.60	11	15.0	1	0	0	1

這裡參考一段 THT 的一篇老文章 The One About Win Probability，來說明 WPA 這個概念。
舉個例來說：
比賽進行至九局下半、雙方平手、一壘有人、無人出局時主隊獲勝的機率，依據Win Expectancy Finder 得到的答案是 71.6%(*1)。一般會認為這是該運用犧牲觸擊推進跑者的時機，但查完 Win Expectancy Finder 統計的資料顯示，若成功犧牲觸擊後，跑者上二壘、一出局，主隊獲勝的機率變成 70.4%(*2)。想不到吧，犧牲觸擊對球隊最終勝負的影響幾乎不存在。
*1 統計 1977-2006 球季、1707 場比賽
*2 統計 1977-2006 球季、1241 場比賽

Interesting? 實際上決定是否採用犧牲觸擊的策略要考慮的因素很多，比如打者的技巧、投手、壘上的跑者、下一棒的打者、比賽的情況 ...等等，但 Win Probability 至少為考慮以上各種因素時，提供了一個最基本的根據。

接著再來更進一步來看 WPA(Win Probability Added)，其實概念也很簡單，延續剛剛的例子：
九局下半，打者擊出一壘安打，造成無人出局一、三壘有人，獲勝的機率(Win Probability)由 71.6% 提升至 90%(*3)，也就是說，這時比只有一壘有人時增加了 18.4% 贏球的機會，WPA 系統會給這位打出一壘安打的球員 +.18，給被安打的對方投手和野手 -.18，若將這場比賽所有這些數字相加後，獲勝的球隊是 .50，而輸球的一方是 -.50，而球員中得分最高的，自然就是這場比賽貢獻最大的球員。
*3 統計 1977-2006 球季、190 場比賽

會解釋 WPA 這項數據的原因，其實是為了另一個數據，Clutchiness，計算的公式(referred to Fangraphs Glossary) 如下：
Clutchiness = WPA - (OPS Wins * pLI)
pLI: Average Leverage Index per Plate Appearance
OPS Wins = .025 * (1.7 * OBP + SLG - 1) * PA

這篇未計算各球員的 Clutchiness，以後有機會再統計了。而從之前列出 Braves 球員開季至今的表現數據來看，KJ、Renteria、CJ、AJ、Hudson、Soriano、Yates、Moylan、Gonzalez 都在 WPA 0.5 以上，是目前對球隊貢獻度最大的功臣。

Clutch Hitting
以前常常看到有自稱數據派的人說沒有 Clutch Hitters、只有 Clutch Hitting，甚至沒有所謂的 Clutch Situation (關鍵時刻)，因為根據統計 RISPBA(Runner In Scoring Position Batting Average) 得點圈有人時打者的打擊率，得到的結果顯示球員的 RISPBA 沒有規律性，可能一年很高、隔年又變很低，不像 AVG、OBP、SLG 會維持比較一致的水準，加上數據量不夠大，所以很會打關鍵安打的球員是不存在的，再來就是「關鍵時刻」並沒有很清楚一致的定義。我原本也這麼認為，尤其在結果確定以後再來談關不關鍵，是沒什麼討論價值的。

但最近翻到二篇舊文，Clutch Hitting: Fact or Fiction? 和 Does Clutch Hitting Exist? 後，比照 Braves 開季以來的表現，對於這個問題重新做一番思考，也許「Clutch Hitters」是存在的。

先看看 "Clutch Hitting: Fact or Fiction?" 這篇文章對 Clutch Situation 關鍵時刻的定義：
... A temptation is to consider only very high pressure situations, such as ninth inning with two outs, a runner in scoring position, and the team trailing by one run. Doing so will lead to such small sample sizes that no worthwhile measurment can be made. Likewise, one might choose to use sabermetrically-determined "high-leverage" situations, but the goal here is to determine performances in situations that the players deem to be significant. Instead, I took a more liberal approach and defined clutch situations as 6th inning or later, and either a tie game or the tying run on base, at bat, or on deck. (This includes 27% of plate appearances.) .....
為求數據量夠多，作者捨棄一般 sabermetric 對關鍵時刻的說法 - "high-leverage" situations，定義 Clutch Situation 為六局(含)之後，以下二種情況之一：
(1) 雙方平手，或
(2) 追平分在壘包上(on base)、打擊區(at bat) 或打擊準備區(on deck)

這樣統計分析出來的結果，可以得到二項「關鍵」的指標：
on-base average in clutch situations,
clutch OBA = -0.007 - 0.10 * (SLG - avgSLG) 及
slugging in clutch situations,
clutch SLG = -0.017 - 0.11 * (SLG - avgSLG)
** "avgSLG" is the MLB slugging average；

作者的結論是：
1.) Clutch hitting is an important skill in baseball.
關鍵一擊是棒球裏重要的一門技術。

2.) The difference between a good and a bad clutch performer is about 28% the difference between a good and a bad hitter, a much larger effect than had previously been thought from sabermetric work. So it is unlikely that any 0.250 hitters turn into 0.400 hitters in clutch situations, but there are 0.285 hitters who turn into 0.300 hitters.
好、壞的關鍵打者之間的差距，約為一般好、壞的打者之間差距的 28%，這比原本 sabermetric 信仰者預估的影響大得多。也就是說，一個 0.250 AVG 的打者不太可能在關鍵時刻成為 0.400 AVG，而 0.285 AVG 的打者在關鍵時刻成為 0.300 AVG 數量就不少。

3.) Because of random effects, it is extremely difficult, if not impossible, to peg a specific player as a clutch performer or choker with a high degree of certainty. (For that matter, it is extremely difficult to ascertain much of anything about a player's batting skills to an accuracy better than 20 points of OBP based on one season's stats.)
由於存在的一些變數，非常難以明確地定義出那些球員在關鍵時刻打的好或那些球員常常在關鍵時刻熄火。

4.) That said, power hitters that perform better in the clutch are fairly rare, as are singles hitters that perform worse in the clutch. This can be used to make an educated guess of a player's clutch tendencies.
強力打者(Power hitters)在關鍵時刻會表現得更好的情況很少，同樣地一般打者(singles hitters)在關鍵時刻會表現得更差也很少。
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
"Clutch or not clutch, that is the question."
Well, 我還不是那麼熟悉數據，只想從這些常見的討論中尋找一些答案，也希望對看完這篇的朋友有點幫助。

Reference:
THT: The One About Win Probability
Tango on Baseball: Does Clutch Hitting Exist?
Dolphin Sim: Clutch Hitting: Fact or Fiction?
Win Expectancy Finder
Fangraphs: Braves Stats

Great matchup: Maddux vs Smoltz

Oh, man. I really don't know how to describe this feeling, to see John Smoltz pitching against GREAT Maddux.

現場的觀眾一定也是如此，Maddux 首打席全場起立鼓掌歡呼，當他把 Smoltz 投出的第一球打出安打後，緊接著觀眾又響起 "good-natured boos"，聽得出來那是大家開玩笑的，這是 Maddux 今年球季的第一支安打。 Maddux 站上一壘後，他還把那顆球要回來做紀念；而 Smoltz 則在 Maddux 站上打擊區時，特地脫帽露出大禿頭朝向他，這個動作回應了前一天 Maddux 說他的頭髮比 Smoltzie 多 :P。
"I was trying to blind him at the plate with my head," Smoltz quipped.

而在 Maddux 第五局被換下場時，現場觀眾再一次的 standing ovation 表達對 Maddog 的尊敬與喜愛，這場面和 Glavine 離隊後第一次回到 Turner Field 主投，現場觀眾的反應截然不同。
(A rude welcome)。
There were the boos, too, from the Atlanta crowd. Plenty of them. Some of the more vocal fans yelled, "Traitor!" One young fan pasted Glavine's mugshot onto the front of a dollar bill.

Glavine 無疑是位偉大的球員，對 Braves 的貢獻更是「罄竹難書」，但他 2002 年離隊的選擇傷了不少 Braves 球迷的心。以前寫過 Glavine 跳槽的事 (Click here)，這裡就不重覆了。Anyway, 這三位偉大球員 90 年代在 Braves 寫下的紀錄，將永遠存在我們這一代球迷的心中。

至於今天的比賽，幾乎和昨天 Anthony Lerew 今年首次主投的那場比賽一模一樣。第七局下半 1:2 落後，二出局後連續四支安打 3:2 超前比數，八、九兩局再由 Mike Gonzalez 和 Rafael Soriano 關門。Braves 今年球季在六局打完落後的情況下戰績是 7W-10L，也是目前大聯盟二出局後最會得分的球隊 (85 Runs, 81 RBI)。這跟去年寫下大聯盟最糟 29 BS 的悲慘狀況相比，今年牛棚帶給球隊的助益不只是守住領先，更在落後的情況下穩住局勢、提供球隊反攻的機會。這樣逆轉獲勝的比賽是球迷看的最刺激過癮的，而短短的一個多月我們已經見證七場了。How lucky we are! (ESPN Recap)

而國內兩家電視台對比賽轉播的選擇，就是把 MLB 當作「台灣龍捲風」、「綜藝大哥大」，把洋基隊當成中華隊，Fucking stupid！

Quote of Today:
Maddux allowed one run and four hits in 5 1/3 innings and got no decision after leaving the game to a standing ovation with a 2-1 lead. He also got one when he came to bat in the second inning.
"The standing ovation was very cool, very gratifying — I appreciate that," said Maddux, who had four strikeouts to move past Fergie Jenkins for 11th place on the career list with 3,195.

Maddux tipped his cap to the crowd of 36,523 fans as he came off the field.
"I loved playing down here," he said. "I loved every game down here."

"I don't mind saying, I'm super excited to win it," said Smoltz (5-1), who allowed two runs and seven hits in seven innings for his third win in four career starts against his friend and teammate for 11 seasons through 2003. "It was a classic game, and I was proud of the fans," he added. "It was a special night. It lived up to its billing."

Braves rally to beat Dogers

這場比賽兩隊的先發投手 Randy Wolf 和 Kyle Davies 本季的表現都不怎麼樣，但這場比賽在六局結束以前，就彷彿兩位賽揚獎的對決。Wolf 大角度的曲球搭配塞內外角的速球，把 Braves 打者吃的死死的，主投 5.1 局丟掉 1 分、8 次三振，而 Davies 今天的控球不錯，直到七局上被老朋友 Wilson Betemit 敲出二分全壘打之前， 6.2 局投出 6 次三振、2 次保送。在 1:4 落後、Braves 剩下三個半局的反攻機會，以道奇牛棚的實力想逆轉並不容易，今年道奇隊在六局結束領先的成績是「15W-0L」！

但棒球比賽最吸引人的狀況就這麼發生了。七局下曹錦輝帶著 10.2 局、0 失分的光環上來，連負責轉播勇士隊比賽的 TBS 二位 Caray 先生都讚譽有佳，結果 Braves 的打線突然復活，一輪機關槍掃射把小曹送回 dugout，上來止血的 Billingsley 再連續被敲出二支安打，五分大局讓情勢瞬間逆轉，Braves 也贏得這場比賽，小曹不但記上 BS 加敗投，ERA 也由賽前的 0.00 增至 3.97。
As usual, I think that a reliever is only as valuable as his ability to keep inherited runners from scoring. And I don't believe reliever's ERA or even WHIP, too few samples to prove something.
RECAP

其實小曹投的並不差，但似乎為了配合主審的喜好，外角球投得有點多，太明顯的壞球也沒有吸引打者出棒的效果；而 Braves 打者這局表現出來的耐心得到回報，好像也鎖定了小曹的外角球，差不多的球就盡量碰出去，第一個上來打擊的 Willie Harris 就磨到 BB，KJ 和 Renteria 也有效的推打。接下來小曹明顯的選擇以快速球對決 Francoeur ，雖然順利解決掉，但其實這不是個好主意，因為雖然 Francoeur 今年的選球和耐心進步不少，但還是個超級 aggressive 的打者，慢慢吊他也許好一點。而 Billingsley 上場後被 Saltalamacchia 和 Thorman 敲的二支安打也投得不差，只能說 Braves 打者突然熱了起來。

這場比賽最有爭議的是裁判的問題，主審五局上可能因為視角的關係沒看到 Salty 先觸到 LaRoche 的頭部，這個誤判就算了，而好壞球的判定也沒什麼好說的；但操他媽的 Bob Davison 就不能不拿出來幹一下了，Chipper 的 checked-swing 被判出棒有點扯，根據主播的說法，Chipper 的手腕並沒有旋轉、還是保持握棒的位置，anyway, it's a close play. 這也作罷；但接下來就怪了，在 Davidson 把 Chipper 趕出球場沒多久，Bobby Cox 才剛走出 dugout 準備 argue 這個判決，就被 Davidson 趕出場，這也是 Cox 生涯第 128 次，只差紀錄保持人 John McGraw 三次了，不知道這 128 次驅逐出場裏，Bob Davidson 佔了幾次？

Bob Davidson? No, he is SOB Davidson!

打出 MLB 生涯第一、二支安打和勝利打點的 Salty 為今天的比賽下了一個好註解，
"Never say die — we proved it today." said Saltalamacchia

Quote of today
"Looking at it in slow, slow, slow motion, it could have gone either way," Jones said. "But that's not even what made me mad. The fact of the matter is he looked over at our dugout -- when Bobby stepped out, he [leaned toward our dugout], waited on Bobby to open his mouth, couldn't even tell what was said, and he threw him out. That's what upset me."

"Bob Davidson feels like all these thousands of people who come to the park come to see him," Jones said. "That's the way he always has been. It's a joke among us players."

"But the fact of the matter is we overcame bad officiating by the third base umpire and the home plate umpire (Sam Holbrook) and we still won. So I'm proud of our guys."

-------------------------------------------------------------------------
BTW, Roger Clemens agrees to re-sign with Yankees.
$28M/yr + 40% luxury tax = $39M/yr, that is frightening $6.5M/month !
Again, Yankees are really good at writing checks.

ESPN's Peter Gammons "Simply, Yankees had the cash"
In the end, the Astros were not surprised. Neither were the Red Sox. The Yankees are the Yankees. Joe Torre is Joe Torre. Derek Jeter, Andy Pettitte and Jason Giambi are still in pinstripes. And they have the cash flow to spend $6.5 million a month (including salary and luxury tax) -- $2.9 million more than the Astros paid last year, considerably more than where the Red Sox left it -- to bring the best pitcher in modern baseball history to the rescue of a tattered pitching staff.

Smoltz's 197th win & Quote of today

Braves 打敗暫居西區第一的道奇隊，Smoltz 也獲得生涯第 197 勝，而且這是他自 1999-04-19 以來第一次對 Dogers 拿下勝投。乍看之下，似乎近幾年 Smoltz 對 Dogers 的成績不怎麼樣。How can it be?

簡略 break down 這幾年的對戰表現來看，其實 Smoltz 的內容還是不錯的，尤其在擔任 closer 的 2001(part)-2004 更為優異。這種投手與球隊的對戰數字其實沒有多大的意義，尤其不同區的球隊比賽不多、數據的樣本太少，加上球隊的成員、年齡的因素 ... 等等都是變數，大概只有球場這個 factor 是固定的，不過這算是看球的話題之一，可以增加一些看比賽的樂趣。

Smoltz's states vs Dogers, 1999-2006

Yr	G	GS	SV	IP	W	L	ERA
1999	2	2	0	10.1	1	1	3.48
2001	1	0	0	1	0	0	0.00
2002	3	0	1	3	0	0	0.00
2003	3	0	3	3	0	0	0.00
2004	4	0	2	4	0	0	2.25
2005	1	1	0	7	0	0	2.57
2006	1	1	0	5	0	1	9.00
Sub	15	4	6	33.1	1	2	3.26

Quote of today:
Atlanta Braves 目前是大聯盟裡二出局後最會得分的球隊，在所有的 146 得分裏佔了 74 分。

"Don't even ask me about that anymore," Cox said with a smile. "I don't have an answer to that one."

McCann 因為手指受傷休息了一場，今天復出 4 次上場打擊 2 H、2 BB，應該復原的還不錯，而 Salty 在 Brayan Pena 的 15-day DL 到期後，也該會回到 AA Mississippi 增加比賽的經驗了。而今天第一局下半，在二出局、球數已滿的狀況下，Tomko 投的是個偏離本壘板好幾吋的壞球，但 McCann 還是擊出反方向的二壘安打為球隊打下二分，this kid really can hit。

Tomko couldn't believe that McCann was able to get his bat on the pitch, which appeared to be several inches off the plate.
"It wasn't even close to being a strike," Tomko said.

John Smoltz 在第四局 Dogers 無人出局、滿壘的狀況下未失一分，取代 Langerhans 站 LF 的 Willie Harris 精彩的守備至少救了二分。雖然目前只先發了三場比賽，Harris 在打擊和防守上的表現還挺稱職的，說不定出現了另一個 Charles Thomas，而累計擊出五支安打已經比 Langerhans 的三支多了！Poor Langy, wish you luck.

"When I'm pitching, the outfielders are the most important players on the field," Smoltz said. "When Willie Harris made that catch, I though that would be their last chance to score."

Player movement

爆爛的 Mark Redman 進 15-day DL 了，我懷疑根本是因為他表現太差而被趕出 rotation 的，Rotoworld 也這麼虧他：「The Braves might have released him if he didn't accept the DL assignment.」anyway, a sigh of relief.

15-day DL:
Mark Redman with a left toe ailment.
Brayan Pena with concussion-related symptoms.

Promotion:
RHP Kevin Barry from Triple-A Richmond.
Catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia from Double-A Mississippi.

Who cares:
Braves transfered RHP Tanyon Sturtze from the 15-day to the 60-day disabled list.

Willy Aybar, Where are you?