Braves 2007 Player Projections (referred to Bill James)

勇士 2007 球員成績預測
* Update (3/09/2007): Fangraphs 資料有所更新，嗯，不太妙。

對於成績預測 "projection" 一直存在著兩級的看法，"old school" 傳統派的雖不至於嗤之以鼻，但寧願相信自己的眼睛多一點；數據派的則不斷地修正、擴充統計的參數與公式，期待由數字裏更精確地解讀球員的未來表現。anyway, 這裡整理了一份 Bill James 的 2007 成績預測，如果你不知道這號人物，趕快找找相關資料，他可是棒球統計分析界響噹噹的人物，建構了一套叫做 "Sabermetrics" 的分析系統，也創造了多種棒球統計分析的方法 (ex. Range Factor、MLE、Brock2)。國外有媒體是這樣寫的："If there is such a thing as a baseball bible, it would have to be the Bill James Handbook."，2006 年的 Time 把 Bill James 列為 100 大最具影響力人物之一。

From David Grabiner's Sabermetric Manifesto:
Bill James defined sabermetrics as "the search for objective knowledge about baseball." Thus, sabermetrics attempts to answer objective questions about baseball, such as "which player on the Red Sox contributed the most to the team's offense?" or "How many home runs will Ken Griffey, Jr. hit next year?" It cannot deal with the subjective judgments which are also important to the game, such as "Who is your favorite player?" or "That was a great game."

所以我從 FANGRAPHS 裏找出 Bill James 的預測整理如下，不管你相不相信，當個參考也挺有趣的。

(一) Lineup

(*) no data from Bill James, referred from Marcel instead.

(二) Rotation


我依照上面的數據大致推算了一下，Braves 2007 的成績可能是 86 ~ 91 勝、團隊 ERA 4.04(4.6)、AVG 0.281(0.270)、HR 208(212)、RBI 813(818)。
>> ( ) 內為 2006 成績 <<

Reference: FANGRAPHS